Future Policy and Information Dissemination: A Natural Language Processing Approach

Abstract

Which words matter the most in central bank communication? Making use of a rather unique European monetary policy decision setting, we build the first monetary policy dictionary. We train the dictionary on high frequency movements of the stock market around press conferences of the European Central Bank. This allows us to precisely identify which phrases do the market mainly reacts to. We find that phrases such as “Improved economy”, “Market development”, and “Stability of the euro” are associated with positive returns. On the other hand, phrases such as “Heightened uncertainties” and “Growth of loans” are associated with negative returns.

Stefano Pica
Stefano Pica
Ph.D. Candidate in Economics Boston University

I am an applied macroeconomist interested in monetary policy, household finance, and real estate.

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